Recently, most varieties of non-ferrous metal plate appeared to rebound sharply, most analysts believe that the main by the recent weakening of macro bearishness as well as the metal fundamentals strong drive. From the macro market point of view, Founder medium-term futures non-ferrous research team said that the current macro bearish factors have weakened, on the one hand, the European Central Bank to raise interest rates to control inflation will be more resolute, so that the U.S. dollar index surged higher and fell back to adjust; on the other hand, the latest release of China’s CPI in August, the PPI rate of increase in both fell back to the domestic credit easing and stimulus measures to bring the space, to further boost the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” consumer expectations. In addition, overseas geopolitical situation and energy crisis on the supply side of non-ferrous metal disturbance continues to exist, in the macro-pressure relief, non-ferrous prices upward fluctuations in the elasticity of strong.
Specifically look to the nickel market, jinrui futures institute of non-ferrous research team said, there are three main factors to promote the recent nickel price rebound. First, the macro sentiment eases, the market overwhelmingly digested the Fed hawkish rate hike behavior, and the ECB sharply hiked the dollar index fell back, stimulating non-ferrous prices stronger; Second, at the industrial level, the domestic stainless steel industry in the profit repair stimulated by the active resumption of production, at the same time the new energy field of nickel sulphate enterprises to increase the rate of operation, increasing the demand for nickel metal raw materials, ferronickel prices rebound to promote the strength of nickel spot; The third is in the low inventory background, the Indonesian government on increasing the ban on raw material exports of tough attitude exacerbated market concerns about supply, while industrial demand rebound also further strengthened the market sentiment, promote nickel prices higher.
But looking ahead, they believe that the sharp rise in nickel prices will lead to industrial buying weakness, while the industrial chain demand rebound will stimulate the Indonesian secondary nickel to increase the flow back, short-term mismatch between supply and demand, as well as capital sentiments may be able to quickly pull up the nickel price, but from the long-term logic, the supply side of the nickel metal to loose or even a full-scale surplus will suppress the price of space to the upside. Therefore, they are not optimistic about the sustainability of the current round of nickel price rises, the market still need to look at the post-holiday industrial spot side of the price support.
In terms of the copper market, CITIC Futures industrial products analyst Zhang Weixin believes that the main source of support for copper prices is the fundamentals are too strong, mainly embodied in the continued demineralization of inventories. Data show that as of September 5, the world’s three major exchanges stacked Shanghai bonded area copper stocks only 268,000 tons, 287,000 tons less than in May, only since August, the amount of inventory depletion reached 100,000 tons. In the background of the inventory continues to melt, copper spot appreciation also ushered in a high level. Domestic spot premium has long been back to the high level of 400 yuan / ton, up to 640 yuan / ton, and the LME spot also by mid-August before the state of discount to water, and all the way up, has come to the peak level of the normal state.
He said that the fundamentals of the strong is currently the biggest support for copper prices, low inventory levels limit the decline in copper prices, giving the long more margin of safety. At the same time, low inventories also enhance the copper price elasticity, tiny good are likely to stimulate copper prices to appear more substantial rebound. In addition, the continued fermentation of the overseas energy crisis, promoting energy costs continue to rise, but also in the short term boosted commodity prices. Statistics show that Europe in addition to Russia’s annual refined copper production accounted for 12% of the world, demand accounted for 11% of the world, is a relatively balanced region. However, the energy problem on the supply of the impact is direct, but the suppression of demand is through the indirect way of affecting economic growth, the former’s reaction is bound to be more rapid, and thus if the European energy crisis continues to ferment, the first step will be affected by the supply, which will also be a short-term boost to copper prices.
But he said, in the background of the bear market betting on copper prices rebound is still facing huge risks. In the pessimistic economic outlook, the current supply and demand tension is difficult to maintain in the long term, the future in the supply upward, demand downward after the phase run, supply and demand contradictions are expected to be resolved, and there is a possibility of turning loose. Therefore, he is not optimistic about the current stage of the copper rebound, and does not recommend at this time to do more gaming rebound bets, but instead recommended in the rebound to seize the opportunity to seize the opportunity to further layout of high empty single.