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Aluminum: Fear of heights persists as demand is uncertain

May 4, 2023 [email protected] Comments Off

Macro side
1. The National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference and introduced that it is currently studying and drafting policy documents on restoring and expanding consumption, and making great efforts to stabilize automobile consumption.
2. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book pointed out that in recent weeks, the U.S. economic growth has stagnated, hiring and inflation have slowed, and access to credit has narrowed. Overall economic activity has not changed much, and expectations for future economic growth remain largely unchanged. Citigroup pushed back its forecast for the start of a U.S. recession from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.
1. Spot transaction: In Wuxi area, the market sentiment is positive and the premium is firm. In Gongyi area, the price of aluminum is high, and the downstream just needs to get the goods, and the spot discount has been expanding for a week in a row. In the South China market, the aluminum price is high, the downstream is cautious in purchasing goods, and the overall transaction is average.
2. According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2023 will be 9 million, which is about +30.7% year-on-year. Judging from the current situation, the probability of achieving it is relatively high. With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the penetration rate of superimposed aluminum extrusions has increased. SMM estimates that the demand for aluminum extrusions in the passenger vehicle sector will reach 523,000 tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Among them, the demand for new energy vehicles 224,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%.
Aluminum prices have been short-term positive due to the impact of power cuts in various places recently, and the external macro sentiment has picked up, and aluminum prices have broken through the 19,000 mark. However, because the demand is not clear, the market fear of heights still exists. It is recommended to pay attention to the first-line pressure of 19250, and be cautious when chasing higher.