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THE COST SUPPORTS THE HIGH LEVEL OF OVERSEAS ALUMINUM PRICES AND IT IS EXPECTED TO RUN AT A HIGH LEVEL AND FLUCTUATE IN THE SHORT TERM.￼
The National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Implementation Guide for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation and Upgrading in Key Fields of High Energy-consuming Industries (2022 Edition)”. The “Guide” clarifies the implementation path of technological transformation in key areas of the non-ferrous industry. First, strengthen the development of advanced technology and cultivate benchmarking and demonstration enterprises. Second, promote advanced and applicable technologies to improve the energy efficiency level of the industry; third, strict energy efficiency constraint mechanism to eliminate backward and inefficient capacity.
Summary of views: The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is turbulent, and the international crude oil has risen to a high level again after a slight decline. The market is worried about the supply of bulk commodities such as aluminum, zinc, wheat, corn, and crude oil. Energy problems in Europe have intensified, natural gas prices have risen, and the cost has supported the high operation of overseas aluminum prices. In Baise, Guangxi, 1.2 million tons of alumina and 420,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum were cut due to the epidemic. It is expected that production will take some time to resume after the epidemic is over. With the restoration of power supply and the relaxation of the dual energy consumption control policy, the old production capacity has gradually resumed production, and the new production capacity is also continuously put into production. It is expected that the production of electrolytic aluminum will gradually recover in 2022. The LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s aluminum warehouse inventories are both at low levels in the past five years. The demand for aluminum in downstream infrastructure will take a certain period of time to be realized, and it is expected to be reflected in the end consumption in the second quarter. The completed area of real estate has fallen sharply, and the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector is relatively weak. It is expected that the short-term aluminum price will fluctuate at a high level. Operation, it is recommended to hold more than one.
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